Reaction vs. Prediction

I found this exellent topic on RogueRogue.com So I thought that I wanted to share it with you guys.

Before I start, I’ll warn you that this may be a bit confusing, especially if you aren’t an experienced pvper. I’ll try to clarify things as much as possible.

First let me define what I mean by prediction and reaction in pvp. A long time ago, I used to think that (for example) using Vanish to immune a Deathcoil or blind was a purely predictive event. Warlocks simply spam Deathcoil after a stunlock, so if you Vanish just after the stunlock or incapacitate ends and you are out of Stealth, you will Vanish-immune it. The problem here lies with what happens when a Warlock figures out that he can Deathcoil at a random interval or a Rogue trinket–> blinds at a random interval in a stunlock. Instead, playing reactively mean waiting until you see the graphic for said Deathcoil or said trinket and responding by hitting Vanish. Now that we have an idea of the difference between reaction and prediction in Rogue PvP, I’ll continue.

I’m writing this because I watch a lot of Rogues PvPing, and a big play style mistake that I see, even amongst skilled and experienced players, is playing predictively in situations where you could instead play reactively. I’m starting to see knowing when to predict and when to react as a big determinant between the skill level and success of Rogues (and players in general) at a high level.

Another good example of prediction vs. reaction lies in Rogue v Rogue duels. It’s a big reason why I have a love hate realtionship with this match up. For example, a Rogue can open with Cheap shot and then immediately Gouge, completely guessing (prediction) because they are used to Rogues trinketing cs immediately, and Gouge a trinket. This is, in my opinion, really a mistake. It turns the duel into a guessing game rather than the opening Rogue having the confidence to react to the trinket and respond (with a Vanish, Blind, Gouge, or fok depending on the Rogue they are fighting and what they like to do after trinket).

OK, maybe guessing works for Rogue v Rogue. But let’s carry this situation to arena, which is in my opinion the practicle application of duels. Are you going to open on a Rogue with cs and then Gouge? No, prediction is completely worthless. Blind a trinket reactively, however, can be game breaking. This prepares the Rogue that is blinded for a full stunlock. Predictive play just doesn’t work here, because blinding into a Cheap shot will probably cost you a game.

Playing reactively when possible is always the way to go, but this goes far beyond Rogue v Rogue. If you are on a caster, you don’t want to guess if they are faking a cast, you want to wait until they get as late into the cast as possible and Kick then to ensure it’s not a fake, and if it is a fake with 0.2 s left then they cost themselves enough time that you mitigate the loss of missing a Kick. At the same time, you can react to a faking-caster by kicking right when you see them stop moving, and kicking early enough into the cast that they won’t fake it. Just guessing if the cast is a fake or not isn’t the best thing you can do.

There are other examples. If a mage is sitting in Ice block, are you going to randomly Gouge into it to pray they come out right at that time, or instead Gouge as you see Ice block fade. When stunlocking an opposing player in arena, and for example you have them in a Kidney Shot and they still have trinket, you can react to their trinket with a Vanish Cheap shot. Kick on cooldown against a caster, and they aren’t casting? Wait till they do to use Vanish–> Garrote so that you can stop their casts and give time for Kick to come off cooldown. There are tons of example of where reaction is the right choice.

Now all this being said, prediction is a huge part of Rogue PvP. How good you are at predicting really comes down to how well you understand your opponents, their abilities and when they will use them. To use an example from one of the last nights of season 8. A Paladin runs toward me early in a fight. I know for a fact Hammer of Justice is off cooldown, and he has no other reason to be running toward me, so when he gets within range I Vanish immune the HoJ. Of course it’s impossible to react to an instant HoJ, but using prediction you have a good chance at immuning it.

There are lighter examples of prediction. Shadowstepping an Intercept is prediction, if a Warrior goes gradually away from you and Intercept is off of cooldown, you know they are going to go for it and you can negate it via predictively Shadowstepping.

To summarize my point here, there are times when prediction is the right choice. If you can EVER choose to counteract an opponents ability through reaction instead of prediction, you should, because otherwise you might as well be rolling dice or flipping a coin instead of PvPing.

Good post. I've been playing a rogue also, and it has taught me a lot. You had some very good points there

Good post. I play hunt, And when we play this class, we must always choose between predict and react quickly. Especially for traps. It's quite.

I'm glad that you liked it, I can't take the credit tho

Someone has been to Roguerogue.com
http://roguerogue.com/2009/03/15/playstyle-reaction-prediction-pvp-upcoming-video-appearances/

Neso, could you please post source links in the future? I'd like to avoid any unpleasant situations :)

owneeedd XD

Aaaaaakward.

ouch!

Jk.We still love you neso

Oh snap :3

I don't think Neso said anywhere that it was his own work, so lets not overreact just yet :)

Ah yeah of course. Give me a sec, i'll add the source. Notice guys I never said that i made this.

we're just humans :'3